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Private markets outlook, Q4 – AI and the rest

Venture Capital and Private Equity are having a strong year, but it is a strong year for a small number of companies. Drawing on our proprietary Funding the Future Survey and data on recent market trends, we look at what is in store the final quarter of 2026.

Discussion topics

• AI accounted for 77% of global venture deal value in the first half of 2026, compared with 30% in 2023. The AI rounds are priced at a premium at every stage, and the premium widens as companies mature. What does this mean for corporate investment decisions, valuations and capital allocation?
• 51% of surveyed investors expect an AI capital expenditure correction within the next six to twelve months. How should CFOs assess exposure across cloud, compute, chips and data-centre infrastructure?
• Investment opportunities are broadening across Europe, Asia and MENA, while 79% of investors still prefer US listing venues. How should companies think about international expansion, funding sources and future listing options?
• Trade sales remain the preferred route for 77% of surveyed investors, compared with 30% for IPOs. What does this imply for exit readiness, shareholder expectations and long-term financial planning?
• With geopolitics and protectionism identified as major headwinds, how can finance leaders balance speed, resilience, regulatory considerations and disciplined returns?